Let?s start with the ?answer? to the test question first:
The Bears will win the NFC North. Not the Green Bay Packers. Not the Detroit Lions. The Bears.
Stipulating up front: I have no rooting interest in rankings or teams. If I ?root? it?s just for individuals, players I know good things about and want good things for.
The past two years my forecast for the Bears was ?10-6 or better,? which was accurate for 2010 and on the way to being right when the Bears were 7-3 and Jay Cutler had two healthy thumbs.
And the mantra will be the same this year, which I?ll go into more detail on later this week with a look at the entire schedule.
But for now, an advance look at how the NFC North will finish:
1 ? Bears
This is primarily a Bears-Packers analysis. The Bears had passed the Detroit Lions last season and were leaving the Lions behind before Cutler was hurt. And the Bears had an exponentially better offseason than the Lions, so let?s leave them for later, like No. 3. The Bears-Lions gap got wider, not narrower.
Yes: The Bears do not match up with the Packers at quarterback ? yet. They would like Jay Cutler to get somewhere close to where Aaron Rodgers already is.
But: The Packers would like their defense to get somewhere close to where the Bears? already is. That?s why they used virtually their whole draft to plug holes on defense.
Yes: The Packers have won six of the last seven games against the Bears, including the two that mattered most ? game 16 of 2010 to get into the playoffs and the NFC Championship game three weeks later.
But: The Bears were being widely considered as the team best equipped to threaten the Packers last year before Cutler broke his thumb. And the Bears are significantly better than they were at that point, with an offense with more than a single foundation pillar in Matt Forte.
The average deciding margin of the last seven Bears-Packers games (since Cutler arrived in 2009) is less than a touchdown. And that is folding in game 15 last year and its 14-point Green Bay win with the Bears playing Josh McCown.
The Packers averaged 35 points per game last year. The Bears, once Mike Martz was reined in after week three and before Cutler?s thumb injury, averaged nearly 29 for those seven games, arguably the best indicator of where that team was.
And that was without Brandon Marshall, Alson Jeffery and more.
The Bears have a better running back (Forte) and wide receiver (Marshall) than the Packers. They have a better defense. They have vastly better special teams ? No. 4, based on the Rick Gosselin index developed for the Dallas Morning News, vs. the Packers at No. 28. They have better depth than the Packers did in 2010 when they had their myriad of injuries (except not to No. 12).
The Bears will not win both Green Bay games. But they will win one, and they will win the NFC North.
2 ? Green Bay Packers
Scoring 560 points makes the Packers an unquestioned place in any debate not only of the best team in the NFC North, but also in the NFC, period.
But ?best? teams do not automatically win anything. Neither do ones with the best player in the NFL. The 2011 Packers can speak to that point. So can the 2011 New York Giants from the other, non-best side.
And the Packers themselves, even with Aaron Rodgers, knew they were a flawed powerhouse, evidenced by their investing their first six draft choices in a defense that ranked No. 32 in yards allowed.
The Giants won the Super Bowl with the No. 32 rushing offense, and the NFL may indeed be a passing-offense league, but it is virtually impossible to reach a Roman numeral game with a poor defense and that?s what the Packers had.
Make no mistake: The Packers are a better team with Cedric Benson as their running back. One back in the NFC North has had 1,000-yard seasons the past three campaigns and it isn?t Matt Forte or Adrian Peterson.
CSNChicago.com colleague and former NFL quarterback Jim Miller offered that the Bears have the best offensive line in the NFL. I second that.
If the Bears are not delighted that their crucial issue at left tackle is still a question, the Packers have Marshall Newhouse there now and former No. 1 Derrick Sherrod isn?t the answer and is on PUP anyway. They signed Jeff Saturday to replace Scott Wells at center, but this is not the Jeff Saturday who took care of Peyton Manning all those years in Indianapolis.
Put another way: The Packers went 15-1 last year. And they are beatable, as the playoffs demonstrated.
3 ? Detroit Lions
When the Lions demonstrate the collective demeanor of a winner, they won?t be. Allen Pinkett may believe that teams need a certain quota of criminals but the Lions already have that and still aren?t winning anything important.
Having arguably best single offensive player outside of Aaron Rodgers makes the Lions a threat. But Calvin Johnson is not able to carry a team that too often needs carrying.
As good as the offense is with Johnson and quarterback Matthew Stafford, it is not good enough to make up for a defense that is flashy enough with Cliff Avril and Ndamukong Suh on the line but real problems back some yards behind them.
The Lions reached the playoffs last season solely because of Bears injuries to Cutler and Forte. Otherwise they are on the outside looking in at the Bears and Atlanta Falcons last January.
They will be this January.
4 ? Minnesota Vikings
The game needs Adrian Peterson. That?s just simply good for the NFL. And the Vikings spent the No. 4 pick of the draft on a franchise left tackle in USC?s Matt Kalil.
But Peterson is returning from a season cut short by a torn ACL and his exact situation for even the first game is not exactly clear. A rookie left tackle, even a very, very good one, can?t block everybody, although it has to help QB Christian Ponder.
The Vikings allowed 49 total sacks in 2011 (tied with the Bears), which is not the way to develop much in a rookie quarterback except for maybe a pain tolerance.
They won?t allow that degree of quarterback carnage in 2012 but the Vikings are simply underpowered to compete in a division staffed with the likes of Cutler, Rodgers and Stafford.
Tags: NFC North, Adrian Peterson, Jay Cutler, brandon marshall, Ndamukong Suh, Minnesota Vikings, Matt Forte, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers, Detroit Lions, Calvin Johnson, Christian Ponder, Matt Kalilthe quiet man yellow cab dropkick murphys guernsey nit colcannon dystonia
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